The Age (Melbourne)
Letters, September 30-31, 2004
Degrees of Difference on Global Warming
I would like to take issue with a number of points made in Melissa Fyfe’s article on the impending visit by renowned British environmentalist David Bellamy (The Age, 27/9).
First, the degree to which the human burning of fossil fuels has contributed to 20th century warming remains unproven and extremely controversial, and many outstanding scientists can be found on both sides of the debate.
Second, Professor Bellamy is entirely correct when he asserts that higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere act as a plant fertilizer, and hence encourage the greening of the planet.
And, third, Professor Bellamy’s view that natural climatic cycling explains most of the changes in estimated global temperature over the last century is shared by thousands of other knowledgeable professional scientists.
Professor R.M. Carter
James Cook University
Townsville
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How ironic: on the day after
NSW records its hottest September temperature on record, in the month the US
gets hit by its fourth major hurricane, and in the year after the third hottest
year in the past millennium, Professor R. M. Carter - a geologist at
Queensland's James Cook University - suggests (30/9) that there is a "debate"
about climate change.
Well, among the fossil-fuelled scientists there may well be disagreement. But
among meteorologists and climatologists - people who have devoted their
professional lives to studying and understanding the what, when, where, hows and
whys of the earth's atmosphere - there is simply no debate. Climate change is
real. And it is here now.
Sounds a bit like the smoking or asbestos "debates" all over again. Funny how
the medical professionals were right all along . . .
Dr Andrew Watkins
Hampton East
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David Jones replies (Letters, Sept. 31st)
Listen to the experts
I can attest that Bob Carter
is right on one point: that thousands of knowledgeable professional "scientists"
believe recent warming is a natural cycle. Unfortunately, what he fails to
mention is that these "scientists" are overwhelmingly geologists, economists,
biologists, and the like (with the occasional elderly "conservationist") who are
not experts on climate change.
Fortunately, for those who prefer an informed and expert response, the
scientific literature on climate change is periodically reviewed by the United
Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Its most recent report,
published in 2001, concludes that "most of the observed warming of the last 50
years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations".
Dr David Jones
Ferny Creek
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Bob Carter comments
Drs. Watkins and Jones
put arguments that are all too familiar.
First, they attack the man rather than engage in scientific debate, referring to
“fossil-fuelled scientists” as a term of disparagement and guilt-by-association.
Second, they quote recent extreme weather events in a way that implies the
events are a result of human-caused global warming. In so doing, they reveal
their utter lack of understanding of the difference between weather and climate
(see below).
Third, they deny the
existence of authentic debate regarding human-caused climate change, and claim
instead that the authority of the IPCC “consensus” should carry all before it.
Quite apart from the fact that science operates on logic and not authority, that
their assertion is completely threadbare can be determined by consulting the
following sources.
And fourth, they claim that only meteorologists and climatologists are competent
to pronounce upon climate change, practitioners of scientific disciplines other
than these being “not expert”.
This claim, breathtaking in its arrogance, is simply silly.
Meteorologists, arbitrarily, have chosen 30 years as the period that separates
(shorter) weather phenomena from (longer) climate phenomena. We have some sort
of instrumental record of weather/climate for ground-based meteorological
stations from a variety of locations for about 150 years. We have accurate
satellite data on truly global weather patterns since 1978, i.e. 27 years, which
is less than the period necessary to even start to make statements about climate
trends.
Meteorologists, who do indeed dominate the IPCC and public discussion on climate
change, are therefore not in a strong position to comment on real climate
change, as opposed to report on the output of computer models which summarise
how they think that climate might change.
Geologists, as scientists, operate in deep time. They study environmental
phenomena on scales commensurate with Earth’s dynamic and changing nature, over
periods of hundreds to thousands to millions of years and more. Geologists are
therefore precisely the persons to whom one should turn for accurate advice on
whether current meteorological trends, if projected as climate trends, are in
any way unusual when compared with Earth’s past behaviour.
Dr Jones therefore gets it right when he acknowledges that thousands of geologists “believe recent warming is a natural cycle”. It is a pity that he is so unable to learn from them.
Bob Carter
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