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December 1  1998

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AOL, Netscape and you

AS Bill Lawry would say: "It's all happening." America Online's acquisition of Netscape for nearly $A7 billion  last week has been hailed by the computer industry -- not to mention the burgeoning online industry -- as the end of the era of the single technology superpower (for which, read Microsoft). It has also been called the beginning of the Internet revolution.

AOL's huge customer base hooked up with Netscape browsers using Java technology provided by Sun -- which is also part of the deal -- is seen as a rich source of fodder for the hungry e-commerce market. The argument goes that use of Java on openly-sourced Netscape provides the ideal platform from which to shop online as the technology will be far more flexible than anything provided by Microsoft.

The companies said last week they would develop an e-commerce package for businesses that want to sell goods online. Sun will provide the underlying Java-based operating software, Netscape will provide the applications that run on it, and AOL will drive traffic to the sites from the AOL and Netscape portals on the Web.

The technology will translate easily to digital TV where the Net will be offered as another channel in the not-too-distant future.

That is the big picture, and a pretty exciting one it is too. It makes many assumptions. Number one is that AOL members are suddenly all going to become Netscape users. The world's biggest ISP currently supplies an ornate proprietary browser, with many little help windows, powered by Microsoft Internet Explorer. The deal that made IE the browser on AOL was one of the reasons many computer companies cried foul about Microsoft "bullying".

Is that deal just going to go away now? Microsoft will certainly have something to say about that. And if Netscape becomes AOL's browser engine, will millions of users suddenly switch, and upload and install the latest so they can shop till they drop?

Maybe, maybe not. What is revealed countless times is that Internet users tend to make up their own sweet minds about such things. Many prognostications are made about the Web and online commerce, but so often the user -- a real person -- is treated as a digit that is easily multiplied, manipulated and extrapolated.

The result always seems to be a future filled with millions of compliant couch potatoes busting their credit card limits with the touch of a mouse key. It does not seem to matter who is supplying the service: Microsoft with 90 per cent of the world's operating system market and penetration into digital TV; or now AOL with a readymade audience about to be primed with top technology.

It can be safely assumed neither is out to improve the intellectual or cultural life of Net users. Never doubt it's your money they are after.

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